Evidence

It’s all too easy to dismiss resource scarcity and climate change as issues that are far too big for us to contemplate, let alone to do something about. At ARK Inc. we take these problems very seriously, but also refuse to panic. We believe in preparing for the ‘worst case scenario’ in advance.

The following are very real possibilities for the near future, but if you read on [link] we will help you to make the first steps towards preparing yourself for a radically different future:

Peak oil

Most experts understand fossil fuels such as oil, coal and gas to be finite resources.
In 1956, the US geophysicist M. King Hubbert proposed that fossil fuel production in any given region would follow a roughly bell-shaped curve over time.

In other words, the oil on which we rely to fuel most forms of transport, and to produce many materials such as plastic, will gradually run out.

The output of many major oil producing countries has already peaked and is now in decline. Global ‘peak oil’ is the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production enters terminal decline.

While some experts suggest that peak oil may already have occurred, most others contend that it will happen within the next five to twenty-five years.
As the cheap energy that we have come to rely on becomes increasingly expensive, the repercussions will be felt across many aspects of our lives, including:

•    Rapid increases in the cost of energy as the cost of its production rockets
•    Rapid increases in the cost of produce and products as transportation costs rocket
•    Increased global political instability as armed conflict over increasingly scarce resources intensifies

Climate change

It is the overwhelming consensus among climate scientists that average global surface and ocean temperatures have steadily been increasing since the mid-twentieth century, and will continue to rise through the current century.

Over the past hundred years, global temperatures have increased by around 0.5 – 1°C. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), an international gathering of experts considered to be the authority on the subject of climate change, concludes that “temperature increase since the mid-twentieth century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations”. In other words, there is a greater than 90% certainty that the gaseous emissions created by modern industrial processes are causing the earth to heat up.

This basic premise is supported by the national scientific academies of all the major industrialised nations and the vast majority of climate scientists.

Earth’s climate is a chaotic system. Warming is does not happen at a constant rate, and is likely to have unpredictable results. Due to the complex interaction of a huge number of variables, some areas are likely to become colder, some drier; sea levels are likely to continue to rise, and general climatic instability will increase, leading to extreme weather events.

Population movement and conflict
The combination of the above two factors could have profound consequences for modern society and many of the institutions we take for granted.

As areas of the world heat and dry out they will become agriculturally unproductive. As sea levels rise, low-lying areas of the world will flood. Both phenomena will create large exoduses of population, putting pressure on communities and services in more habitable areas and potentially leading to conflict.

As the resources we rely on begin to run out, population will also be concentrated in the areas with richer resources, thus further exacerbating the problem. Efforts to secure resources such as oil, gas and fresh water, are likely to become increasingly ruthless and violent.